Some Nigerians believe that setting an agenda for President Muhammadu Buhari on how to fix the economy during his second term in office amounts to an exercise in futility. When he was declared winner of the presidential election in 2015, one question that many people asked was: “Now that he and his All Progressives Congress have got power, what are they going to do with it?”
Four years down the line, the question is being asked again following his declaration as winner of the 2019 presidential election by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. However, the answer to the 2015 question is different from the response anyone can get after the 2019 election. In 2015, the wind of the ‘Change’ mantra was blowing across the land; and expectations were high. The high rating of President Buhari then, was rooted in his antecedent as a past military head of state (December 1983 – August 1985 ) with unmatched zeal to fight corruption. At least, that was the conviction of many of his rabid supporters.
For many Nigerians, his first term of four years as the country’s elected president has been turbulent, if not traumatic. He came to power promising to deliver security, fight corruption and fix the economy, which many economic experts say was not in good shape when he became president. But, has he delivered on those promises? Put in another way, the question many Nigerians had to answer in the build up to the 2019 presidential election was, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Given that the question came in the thick of electioneering campaigns, President Buhari’s supporters were quick to dismiss it as the rampaging voice of the opposition. Understandably, they did so because they wanted him re-elected for a second term.
But now that elections are over, it is time to come to terms with the fact that both the president’s men and his adversaries buy from the same markets in the same economy. And therefore, what affects one equally affects another. There are clear indications that his performance in those areas he set as priorities still leave much to be desired. At the end of his first term, the country’s inflation rate remains at double digits (11%), unemployment rate (23.1%), lending rates (23%) and exchange rate (N360 = $), among others.
In his second term, it is important for President Buhari to get his priorities right. Firm economic policies must be made and implemented. To achieve that, he must put together, an economic management team that understands the challenges facing the Nigerian economy and their solutions. Like previous administrations, if he has to get economic experts (Nigerians in the Diaspora) from different parts of the world to join the ones in the country, so be it. That team must be different from the one that has served him in the last four years, delivering unsatisfactory result. If the team gets it right in bringing down the lending rate, exchange rate and inflation, industries will thrive. When industries thrive, direct and indirect jobs will be created. When the rate of unemployment is reduced, corruption and violent crimes will also reduce in the country.
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One way the government can create jobs is to intensify efforts in the agricultural sector through which the economy can be diversified. Mechanized agriculture is a major employer of labour because of its value chain. The Buhari administration, some economic experts say, has done well in sustaining to a reasonable extent, the agricultural revolution introduced by the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. The revolution, which tends to focus on rice cultivation was even a campaign issue for Buhari’s second term. “Home Grown Rice Everywhere,” some of his campaign billboards read. Even though the home grown rice are not everywhere as his campaign managers claimed; and are not easily affordable where they are found, there is a compelling need to not only sustain the push but also to invest more in the agricultural sector.
Young Nigerians, who constitute the greater part of the unemployed population, can be encouraged to go into agriculture. Those who cannot be engaged through agriculture must be encouraged to engage in small scale businesses. The Buhari administration must, therefore, think of creating skills acquisition centres across the country to complement its existing social security programmes. In addition, provision must be made to create seed capital for young graduates trained at the various skills acquisition centres so that they can start new lives as entrepreneurs and potential employers of labour.
As the agricultural sector is being developed, industrialization should be give serious consideration. The industrial sector must be developed along side with road and rail infrastructures to cater for the transportation needs of both the agricultural and industrial sectors among others. But can that happen where and when there is no steady supply of electricity? How will the agricultural produce be preserved in order to protect the farmers from incurring massive losses? Although he hardly talks about it, providing electricity is a task president Buhari must accomplish as he struggles in his second term to redeem his image against the backdrop of failed campaign promises of his first term. Nigeria, like many economic experts have often said, has all the human, material and natural resources to transform the economy.
In fighting corruption, which from all indications is President Buhari’s first love, effort must be made to ensure that investors, local and foreign are not scared away from the country. A situation where business owners don’t know government’s next line of action in the fight against corruption. Rather than attract capital, this can only encourage capital flight as capital goes where it is safe. The government must, therefore, create a stable investment climate in order to grow the economy.
