Following the violence unleashed on the people of Rivers and Bayelsa states by soldiers during the 2019 elections there are renewed fears of militancy in the Niger Delta. Can Buhari contain renewed violence in the oil region?
The rattling sound of gunshots in Rivers State finally gave way for songs of victory by Governor Nyesom Wike and his supporters. That came when he was eventually declared winner of the March 9 governorship election in the state.
In a long time to come, the people of Rivers State and their neighbours in Bayelsa states will not forget the mayhem visited on them by soldiers from the Nigerian Army deployed by the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, to ensure that the governors of the states and their Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, did not have a smooth ride, even if they were going to win the elections.
In the build-up to the elections, former governor of Rivers State, and now Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi, had threatened the state with violence during the elections. At a rally to round off campaigns in Rivers State, Amaechi who was also the Director-General of President Muhammadu Buhari campaign organisation, mounted the podium, chanting war songs in his native Ikwere language. He made no pretences about his desire to ensure that the state was made ungovernable, even with the rancour within the APC he led in the state.
For many indigenes of Rivers, there were strong indications that the elections were not going to be peaceful in any way. Yet, many were confounded at the possibility of a son of the soil and immediate past governor waging war against his own people. Amaechi eventually made good his threat of violence, beginning with the presidential and National Assembly elections held on February 23, using his position as minister to get the military high command to deploy soldiers to unleash terror on his people.
The Abonnema mayhem where no fewer than 20 people were killed readily comes to mind as one unforgettable spot in Rivers State where the blood of the people was spilled by political gladiators for no just cause. Among those who had a taste of the violence visited on Rivers people was Ateke Tom, a former Niger Delta militant leader who is now a traditional ruler of his Okrika people. The people of the state believe that the soldiers were detailed to visit him with terror as he is believed to be an ally of Wike, who is Amaechi’s arch rival.
At the heart of the political violence and terror that has been festering in the state since about 2014, is the rivalry between Amaechi and Wike over support for former President Goodluck Jonathan. It escalated into a battle of supremacy; a battle of who controls Rivers State and eventually, which political party controls the oil rich state. The soldiers vandalized Ateke Tom’s house and his guest house in Okochiri in Okrika Local Government Area of the state but could not get the ex-militant leader as eye witness accounts indicated.
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They also headed for Kalabari in search of Asari Dokubo, another ex-militant leader. Dokubo has never hidden his disdain for Amaechi’s political moves ever since he launched a rebellion against the Jonathan administration for the simple reason that they are all of the Niger Delta stock. A video recording of the Kalabari invasion showed that even though the soldiers did everything to intimidate the people in Dokubo’s neighbourhood, they could not take him away amidst tension. In addition to shooting, killing and intimidation of voters, there have been several accounts of how soldiers also stationed armoured personnel carriers within close range of homes of some prominent individuals and communities just for show of force.
At the end of the day, elections in Rivers State were marred by irregularities and violence in large proportion. So bad was the situation that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, suspended collation of results for the governorship election for a few weeks in order to investigate cases of wide spread violence in polling booths, destruction of polling materials, hostage taking of electoral officials as well as prevention of polling agents from gaining entry into collation centres, mainly by soldiers.
What should worry President Buhari as he counts down to the beginning of his second term in office is the fact that the raging violence in Rivers State might just be a springboard for the return of the Niger Delta militants to the creeks. How will that affect his government? Asari Dokubo, known for his capacity to mobilize forces in the creeks once threatened that should he be arrested by government forces, Nigeria’s oil production would be reduced to zero.
He made allusion to the last time he was arrested, and how his arrest led to the decline of oil production from about two million bpd to 700,000 bpd. That was a major blow to the Nigerian economy, and for which reason previous administrations insisted on amnesty for the militants to save Nigeria’s mono product economy from collapse. In the event that there is renewed militancy in the creeks, therefore, can Buhari contain it as the economy struggles with volatile oil prices?
Election violence was wide spread across the Niger Delta states. All was about which of the two leading political parties – APC and PDP controls the oil states. The tension that characterized elections in Rivers was also witnessed in Bayelsa where Timipre Silva, another former governor, with the help of soldiers held his state hostage for the purpose of winning the elections for APC. Across the Niger Delta region, tempers have risen over military invasion of the states. And the attack on some ex-militant leaders, especially in Rivers appears to be akin to biting the tail of a sleeping cat. This could lead to very unpleasant consequences for Nigeria.
One question that has greatly agitated the minds of many people of Southern Nigeria in general is, “has any politician of Northern extraction in the class of Amaechi and Silva and their supporters ever waged a similar war against their people, just to ensure that a presidential candidate of their choice wins an election?”
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